You Are Not Prepared

by Knut Svanholm | May 21st, 2020 | vol.2

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...cried the super-villainesque demon hunter Illidan Stormrage in the trailer to World of Warcraft’s first expansion “The Burning Crusade”, about a decade ago. The company behind the Massively Multiplayer Online Roleplaying Game, Blizzard Entertainment, certainly seemed underprepared for the steep rise in subscriptions to the game that ensued during the following couple of years. The game’s servers were full and players experienced lag and login issues for months. 

At its peak, World of Warcraft had around twelve million subscribers. A larger population than that of Norway, Denmark and Iceland combined. It also had the largest in-game economy of any virtual world, and entire floors of skyscrapers in China were dedicated to companies consisting of “gold-farmers” who sold the in-game currency on black markets across the globe. Blizzard, acting as the world of Azeroth’s central bank, soon took measures to prevent this kind of behavior and started to ban accounts that didn’t comply with their rules. Later on they also tweaked the game mechanisms and made in-game gold less important and thus less valuable to the players. Now, what has all of this got to do with Bitcoin?

First of all, the in-game economy of World of Warcraft provides us with a perfect metaphor for how central bankers dictate the behaviors of an economy’s participants. They have immense powers and can use them whenever they so see fit, to change people’s lives by tampering with incentives. Blizzard would probably have let its in-game markets run free, if it weren’t for all the regulations that affected their ability to profit from what many countries deemed to be illicit transactions with the gold-farmers. They also wanted to stay in charge of their own creation, just like nation states do. Because that’s what they are. Creations. A nation is just an idea. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ideas can be very powerful. These things aside, the outcry of Mr. Stormrage, “You are not prepared!”, could be a warning to all of us Bitcoiners too! We are just about to enter another bull market, and price predictions are many and diverse. Some people think we’re headed towards sub 3000 dollar levels once again before the bull run begins. Others say that we can expect levels like 40k dollars, 100k dollars or even higher than that. But there’s one possible scenario which most of us haven’t even dared to consider. What if the next bull run triggers hyperbitcoinization?

Hyperbitcoinization is defined by the Nakamoto institute as “a voluntary transition from an inferior currency to a superior one, and its adoption is a series of individual acts of entrepreneurship rather than a single monopolist that games the system.” In other words, it is the event where the advantages of Bitcoin become undeniable, and everyone wants to get a piece of the world’s first digital pie before it’s too late. A FOMO-cycle of an unprecedented magnitude. An event never before seen in history. An event which will render every other currency mostly useless. It sounds far fetched, but there is a chance that the next Bitcoin bullrun is the tipping point.

The third block subsidy halving is behind us and it now takes the network about 90 seconds to create a single new bitcoin. This means that the entire world will have to fight for this new bitcoin for at least one and a half minute before there’s another one to fight for. No one knows what this really means. But it could mean the end of the world as we know it and the dawn of a new era. If the fear of missing out on Bitcoin starts to scare institutional investors and nation states, we will see a prisoner’s dilemma type of game play out before our eyes. An event so bizarre that it’s almost impossible to imagine what it will look like. Imagine the price of a bitcoin doubling every week. 10k USD, 20k, 40k, 80k, 160k, 320k, 640k, 1 mil, 2 mils, 4, 8, 16 mils and so on. At first, you’ll be very happy that your bitcoins now equal a sum of money large enough to pay off your entire mortgage. But what happens when they’re able to buy you a small city? When they can buy you not only friends but armies? When you realize that you’re richer than, say, Tibet?

You are not prepared!

First of all, in a scenario as bizarre as hyperbitcoinization, it is extremely important that you not only own your own private keys and a couple of hardware wallets, but that you run your own full node. You will first and foremost need to secure your coins, and in order to do that you’ll need to read up on a lot of things, and you’ll need to start right now!

Secondly, you’ll need to be mentally prepared, so that you won’t do anything stupid. Not only that, but you should probably read up on what a massive increase in wealth can do to the human psyche. Sadly, the transition to a Bitcoin denominated world has a high probability of being quite violent. The powers that be won’t give up their stranglehold on the planet easily, and you will run a risk of being caught off guard. You are not prepared!

Whatever your hyperbitcoinization plan may be doesn’t matter much as long as you have a plan. You should think about these things before they happen. A clever first step is probably to try to get to know some Bitcoiners. We’re a very friendly and helpful bunch, as long as you don’t start asking about shitcoins. There are a lot of Bitcoiners out there, and the more of them you know, the higher the likelihood that your bitcoins will help you when faced with a new paradigm.

After the inevitable recession (or even depression) that will follow in the wake of the pandemic-who’s-name-you-shall-not-even-utter, people’s faith in their governments may be forever damaged to the degree where they will start to seek alternative solutions. One such alternative is Bitcoin, and there’s a high likelihood that Bitcoin might be your only option. The citadels will open their gates to those their inhabitants deem worthy, and knowing a couple of Bitcoiners will certainly help. We are many, and we love voluntary cooperation. 

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As the character Petyr “Littlefinger” Baelish from Game of Thrones said when the show was still watchable: “Chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder.” Many who try to climb it fail, and never get to try again. The fall breaks them. Others are given a chance to climb, but refuse. They cling to the realm, or the gods or love. Illusions. Only the ladder is real.

The climb is all there is.

Don’t trust, verify.

You are not prepared. 
But you could be, to a certain extent at least.

Check out the amazing video version of this article. Made by Ioni Appelberg.

Knut Svanholm is a former tall ship sailor and rock music singer whose book "Bitcoin: Sovereignty through mathematics" is one of the most praised Bitcoin books of 2019. He's appearing as a speaker on the subject internationally more and more often, at events such as Stockholm Fintech Week and the Value of Bitcoin Conference. He writes about the philosophical impacts of Bitcoin and how it can change the world for the better. Besides his work in Bitcoin, Knut is currently a Crew Manager for an offshore industry shipping company.