The Great Hunger

by Anil | Oct. 21st, 2020 | vol.7

When we encounter something new, something that doesn’t fit our existing worldview, we’re likely to accept the explanation that best serves our interests.

Few places is this better demonstrated throughout history than in regards to food.

By the 1600s Europe’s population had barely recovered from the Black Death over a century before. The labour and land intensive grains that sustained most people were heavily dependent on the seasons, frequently causing famine. Europe’s poor were desperate for a reliable source of calories they could afford.

As trade routes and colonisation expanded in the Early Modern Era, new and exotic foods were being introduced into Europe. These mysterious items would become the source of much confusion, rumor and marvel.

When Spanish invaders returned from the Andes with valuable silver, they also brought with them the humble potato (presumably as food for the journey). A seemingly insignificant event that would have far-reaching consequences for global demography. The potato offered an ideal solution to the continent's food security challenges, though it was not initially recognised.

When [Sir Walter] Raleigh brought potatoes to the Elizabethan court, they tried to smoke the leaves.
— Nancy Qian, (Prof. Economics, Northwestern University)

While some foods were believed to cure disease, in France, potatoes were believed to cause them. At first rumours spread that consuming potatoes would result in contracting leprosy due to the vegetable’s physical resemblance to the disease. They also grew in the dirt and so it was thought they mustn't be fit for consumption by anyone of means or status. Prior to the scientific revolution, this reasoning was not uncommon for the time and place.

1. Circle of Competence.png

French parliament would go to such lengths as banning the human consumption of potatoes in 1748 in the name of public interest. This was the first piece of information handed down to the public regarding the potato. And first conclusions carry significant weight, especially in information-sparse societies.

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The ruling would not stick thanks to a pharmacist in the French army - Antoine Auguste Parmentier. Parmentier was repeatedly captured by the Prussians during the 7 Years War (1756-1763). While imprisoned he was fed a diet primarily of potatoes and became aware of its potential as a result of his own weight gain. Upon his return to France he wrote a compelling thesis boasting of the nutritional value of the potato. Shortly thereafter the Paris Faculty of Medicine would classify potatoes as edible for human consumption in 1772.

In order to further alleviate citizens of their prior concerns, Parmentier used his new found social standing to convince royalty (Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette) to help sway public opinion.

One day as the royal couple were walking in the gardens of Versailles, he presented each with a potato flower... The Queen placed the purple flower in her hair, and the King put his in his buttonhole.
— Geri Walton
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We may be yet to experience our Marie Antoinette moment, but so far the social proof has been comfortably building.

From Jack Dorsey and Reid Hoffman to Michael Saylor and Paul Tudor Jones, titans of industry are endorsing Bitcoin as a technology key to a prosperous future.

It is our modern day potato.

By providing ample sustenance and reducing the threat of famine, the potato enabled significant and sustained population growth across several european nations. This boom in human capital would eventually help fuel the Industrial Revolution. Similarly, Bitcoin is providing the world access to sound digital money, reducing the leverage of dictators and authoritarian regimes. The increase in freedom of movement of capital will surely help fuel innovation in the Information Age.

To be clear, none of these shifts in perspective are undertaken voluntarily. It takes some sort of catalyst to force or encourage us to do so.

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At present, Bitcoin still sparks fear of contracting metaphorical leprosy to the ill-informed.

And only when fully aware of the risks inherent with sticking with the status-quo, will someone reassess their future well-being and take a chance on nutrient-dense sats.

Though it wasn’t just famine that sowed worry in the minds of European peasants in the Early Modern Era. Violence was also a very real threat. 

Invading armies stripped the barns of stored grain and of animals, and trampled or grazed the crop, leaving the population to starve. Potatoes, however, often survived these depredations, being in the ground…Farmers who planted potatoes therefore tended to survive better during wars, spreading the habit.
— Matt Ridley

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Farmers who grew it actively reduced their risk, while more than doubling their yield in terms of calories. It became a hard strategy to ignore given the external environment at the time.

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By feeding rapidly growing populations, [it] permitted a handful of European nations to assert dominion over most of the world between 1750 and 1950.
— William H. McNeill

The finite game that is poised to take place between jurisdictions over attracting Bitcoiners, hash power and Bitcoin-related innovation will likely impact the global pecking order.

7. Nash Equilibrium.png

Of course we can’t discuss the rise of the spud without mention of the Great Hunger that saw the deaths of over one million Irish (from starvation, malnutrition and disease) and the exodus of one million more. The extreme dependency that parts of Ireland developed for the potato due to a myriad of factors, coupled with a lack of genetic diversity among the varieties grown, made the eventual blight catastrophic.

Conversely, the Incan’s consumed several varieties of potatoes. Eventually domesticating only the varieties that would evolve to best resist frost, given the fluctuating climate and altitude of the Andes. It was this cautious trial and error over several generations that produced the best annual risk-adjusted yield.

Today Bitcoin development looks a lot more like the Incan approach- taking a multi-generational time horizon.

Although we have seen several hard forks since the initial release of the Bitcoin protocol, resulting in a host of offshoots with varying attributes, the market has made it clear which variety it finds most useful and least likely to become affected with blight. Bitcoin has become the reliable standard on which innovation can take place on top of without disruption to the underlying food source.

Part of Bitcoin’s earned trust and appeal comes from the fact that it keeps coming back stronger with each attack or exposed threat.

It’s this constant low-level assault that forces the Bitcoin protocol to adapt and harden.

Small forest fires periodically cleanse the system of the most flammable material, so this does not have the opportunity to accumulate.
— Nassim N. Taleb

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Back to the potato.

Several unique features helped accelerate the spread of adoption throughout Europe. Firstly, it was adaptable to a wide range of environments and soil types - essential for wildly unpredictable seasonal climates (the potato would ultimately become the first vegetable to be grown in space aboard the 1995 Columbia Space Shuttle). Secondly, it could also be stored for weeks at a time without spoiling, allowing for portability - a hugely important factor in feeding a primarily rural population or engaging in trade.

External, but adjacent innovation was also important. As innovation in chemistry produced ammonia-based fertilizers, a significant increase in crop yields were unlocked, further compounding the potato’s attractiveness.

Fast forward to today- innovation in computer science and electrical engineering has produced the hardware and software necessary to enable a permissionless money to permeate.

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Given the financial incentives at stake, it can also be argued that Bitcoin has become a driving force in itself in the continued innovation of application-specific integrated circuits.

The Bitcoin network is today regarded as the most secure computational network in the world.

This sends a strong signal to the uninitiated that whatever is being protected or maintained clearly has immense value to some, and that it may be worth finding out what.

 

Anil teaches precoiners how Bitcoin, innovation and incentives are connected. He creates non-technical, introductory resources and is based in Canada.